ANGOLA REBELS' SURRENDER HAS GOOD CHANCE TO LAST 

Sunday April 7, JOHANNESBURG - Africa's longest-running conflict appeared close to an end this week as the Angolan government signed a cease-fire deal with a rebel movement that has been decimated by a sustained army offensive. 

The 27-year conflict has killed about 1 million people, maimed tens of thousands, and displaced more than 4 million in a country with a population of less than 13 million. It turned this nation, rich in diamonds and oil, into one of the world's poorest. Although Angola produces almost 1 million barrels of oil per day and millions of dollars worth of diamonds a year, one-third of children under 5 are malnourished, half the population is illiterate, and 1 million of its citizens require daily food aid. 

The agreement signed Thursday in Luanda, couched as a mutual cease-fire, is in reality a surrender of the rebels. The National Union of the Total Independence of Angola, or UNITA, once a proud, well-equipped rebel army backed by the United States, was devastated by recent government assaults. Six weeks ago government forces killed charismatic rebel leader Jonas Savimbi, who led UNITA through more than two decades of civil war. In the months before Savimbi's death five UNITA generals and dozens of officers were captured or surrendered. 

 "UNITA had no choice," said Henri Boshoff, a military analyst with the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies. "UNITA was destroyed." 

This increases the prospects that the cease-fire, unlike earlier agreements, will hold. That could bode well for southern Africa, where economic growth has long been constrained by persistent civil conflicts. But for ordinary Angolans, a better future requires not only peace, but also the reform of their notoriously secretive, corrupt, and ruthless government.   

 According to the US State Department's Human Rights Report, "Corruption and mismanagement are pervasive in the public sector and widespread in the private sector. The country's wealth continued to be concentrated in the hands of a small elite who often used government positions for massive personal enrichment." 

 This had created a country of contrasts. Government officials live in posh villas while orphaned children shelter in sewers. Shantytowns are bulldozed to make way for exclusive gated communities. The government preaches accountability, yet millions of government dollars each year are unaccounted for. 

 For decades the government blamed its inability to improve the lives of ordinary Angolans on the war effort, which at its height consumed 40 percent of the national budget. 

  "The government has used the war as an excuse to not invest in hospitals, education, and social welfare," said Hannelie DeBeer, a former South African National Defense Force specialist on Angola. 

Recently, the government took small steps toward transparency and good governance. Two years ago, in exchange for loans and grants from the International Monetary Fund, the government agreed for the first time to allow outside auditors to review its books. 

 On Thursday, there was another sign of government reform. After the signing of the cease-fire, officials announced a multimillion dollar infrastructure project to repair the bridges, runways, and roads ruined during the civil war and the war for independence that preceded it. 

 Without accompanying political reforms, however, Angolans fear they will be left living under a military dictatorship, albeit a peaceful one, said Rafael Marques de Morais, representative for the Open Society Initiative for Southern Africa. 

 "This government has been very effective at crushing opposition," said Marques, who spent time in jail for criticizing the government. "UNITA and civil society were the only opposition here. Now UNITA is gone. And civil society alone is left to fight for a transparent government which uses the resources of the country for the good of the people." 

 Equally daunting is the task of restoring normal life to the Angolan countryside. Huge swaths of farmland have been mined and will have to be cleared before farming can begin again. 

A Portuguese colony until 1975, Angola descended into civil war after independence when the two main liberation groups fought for control. The country, about twice the size of Texas, then became a Cold War battleground involving American, Russian, and Chinese interests, and tens of thousands of soldiers from as far away as Cuba and South Africa. 

 As part of the agreement, UNITA has pledged to disarm its troops, estimated at more than 10,000. Elections, in which UNITA is expected to participate as an opposition party, have not yet been scheduled.